A Market Gripped by Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s remarkable 2025 rally has started to wobble, leaving traders divided over whether the flagship cryptocurrency can sustain its momentum. After breaking new highs earlier this year, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a phase of consolidation that has fueled bearish bets. Analysts and traders on prediction platform Myriad are increasingly convinced that Bitcoin will slip to $105,000 before mounting any attempt at a fresh all-time high.
According to the latest market data, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $105,000 has surged to 68%, a sharp increase of more than 25% in just one week. Much of this bearish swing has unfolded over the last 48 hours, reflecting growing nervousness among traders as macroeconomic headwinds weigh on risk assets.
Currently, Bitcoin trades below $110,000 for the first time since early September, marking a 5% decline over the past week. With core U.S. inflation stuck at 2.9% and geopolitical uncertainty rising, BTC’s short-term path looks increasingly volatile.
Why Traders Are Shifting Bearish
The changing sentiment isn’t simply about technical levels—it’s about the broader economic landscape.
- Inflation Stagnation
Despite months of monetary easing and expectations of lower interest rates, inflation remains stubborn at 2.9%. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may face limits in its ability to cut rates aggressively without reigniting price pressures. - Trump’s Tariff Shock
The newly announced tariffs by President Donald Trump have created an additional layer of uncertainty. While aimed at protecting U.S. industries, the tariffs risk raising import costs, stoking inflation, and dampening global growth. For Bitcoin, this combination of higher inflation risk and weaker growth represents a mixed bag—potentially bullish in the long run as a hedge, but bearish in the short term as liquidity tightens. - September Seasonality
Historically, September has been a brutal month for Bitcoin. Data shows the asset has averaged a 3.77% decline during September every year since 2013. This seasonal weakness adds weight to the current bearish outlook.
Crypto Market Sell-Off: Ripple Effects Across Altcoins
The weakness in Bitcoin hasn’t occurred in isolation. Over $162 billion in total crypto market capitalization has been wiped out this week, underscoring the fragility of sentiment. Altcoins, which typically magnify Bitcoin’s moves, have fared even worse, with double-digit drawdowns across popular tokens in the DeFi and AI sectors.
Ethereum (ETH) has slipped below $5,200, while Solana (SOL) retreated under $170, both facing selling pressure as institutional demand cools. Stablecoin flows suggest capital is rotating to the sidelines rather than re-entering risk assets, a signal that investors remain cautious.
Technical Analysis: The $105K Line in the Sand
From a chartist’s perspective, Bitcoin’s $105,000 level is more than just a psychological barrier—it represents a key technical support.
- Support Zone: $105K–$106K, where buying pressure previously emerged.
- Resistance Levels: $115K (short-term), $124K (all-time high).
- Momentum Indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled from overbought levels but hasn’t reached oversold, suggesting room for further downside.
If BTC breaks decisively below $105,000, traders warn that downside could accelerate toward $98,000, where the 200-day moving average currently sits.
Long-Term Outlook Still Intact
While short-term sentiment has soured, Bitcoin’s long-term narrative remains compelling. Institutional adoption continues to expand, with ETFs seeing steady inflows despite the latest volatility. Moreover, Bitcoin’s scarcity, fixed supply, and role as a hedge against geopolitical risk continue to attract investors seeking portfolio diversification.
Analyst Dean Chen of Bitunix emphasized:
“The recently announced tariffs add uncertainty, but the bigger story is Bitcoin’s maturing role in global finance. Volatility is natural in such an environment, but the long-term thesis remains intact.”
What Needs to Happen for Bitcoin to Rebound?
For Bitcoin to avoid dipping below $105,000 and instead resume its march toward $125,000, several factors could provide tailwinds:
- Federal Reserve Clarity: More aggressive rate cuts or dovish signals could inject liquidity into markets.
- Geopolitical Relief: De-escalation in tariff tensions and global trade stability could restore risk appetite.
- ETF Flows: Sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs would show continued institutional conviction.
- Hash Rate Growth: Rising mining activity would confirm network security and bolster investor confidence.
Bitcoin September Performance vs. 2025 Trend
| Year | Average September Return | BTC Price Trend in September | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013–2022 (10-Year Avg) | -3.77% | Historically weak month | Bearish/Neutral |
| 2023 | -5.2% | Dropped below $30K | Bearish |
| 2024 | +1.1% | Broke above $65K | Cautiously Bullish |
| 2025 (So far) | -5% (to date) | Struggling near $110K → $105K risk | Bearish outlook |
Key Takeaways:
- Historical Weakness: September has averaged nearly -4% returns for Bitcoin since 2013.
- Short-Term Risks: In 2025, BTC is already down 5% this month, with traders betting on a retest of $105K support.
- Long-Term Strength: Despite seasonal weakness, Bitcoin continues to outperform most asset classes over multi-year periods.
Investor Takeaway: Volatility Is the Price of Admission
Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase highlights the asset’s dual identity—both a hedge against uncertainty and a high-risk speculative instrument. Traders are increasingly betting on a drop to $105,000, but that doesn’t negate Bitcoin’s structural growth story.
For short-term traders, risk management is paramount. Stop-loss levels and careful position sizing remain essential in a market prone to 10% daily swings. For long-term investors, the dips may represent opportunities to accumulate at more attractive valuations.
Final Word: Can Bitcoin Break the Cycle?
Bitcoin’s struggle to stay above $110,000 underscores the challenges of balancing macroeconomic headwinds with bullish long-term fundamentals. Traders now assign nearly 70% odds that BTC will touch $105,000 before making another attempt at $125,000, reflecting a cautious and increasingly bearish sentiment.
Yet, history has shown that Bitcoin often thrives when skepticism peaks. If institutional inflows remain strong and macro conditions shift favorably, the leading cryptocurrency may once again defy expectations. Whether Bitcoin finishes the month above $105K—or slips below it first—the volatility on display is a reminder of both the risks and opportunities that define this asset class.