Bitcoin is once again at the center of investor attention as a mix of macroeconomic forces, inflation expectations, and global trade policy sets the stage for potentially major price action. With the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation report and decisions around new tariff structures, market participants are weighing risks and opportunities carefully. Many believe that if inflation shows signs of cooling and geopolitical uncertainty eases, Bitcoin could break past $110,000 before any significant correction sets in.
But that rise isn’t guaranteed. A volatile combination of central bank policy, institutional inflows, and trade dynamics makes this one of the most pivotal moments for crypto markets in 2025.
Bitcoin’s Historical April Strength and Institutional Momentum
April has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, which has averaged a 12.9% return, according to market data. This seasonality, combined with broader bullish sentiment and renewed institutional activity, has created a supportive backdrop for price growth.
Research from leading blockchain firms points to an increased presence of institutional capital, with large holders positioning for further gains. According to analysts, these moves suggest that Bitcoin is not just benefiting from short-term retail hype but is also being redefined as a long-term asset within diversified portfolios.
Inflation and the Federal Reserve: The Liquidity Factor
Much of the near-term focus rests on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, due out March 28. This inflation metric, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, could dictate the direction of both risk assets and monetary policy in the coming months.
The Fed’s recent pivot toward easing monetary tightening has already started improving liquidity across asset classes. If inflation data comes in softer than expected, investors could interpret that as a green light for further rate cuts — a scenario that has historically favored Bitcoin’s upside.
Tariff Talks and Geopolitical Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment
While inflation is one side of the macro equation, trade tensions remain a significant headwind. Since President Trump’s announcement of renewed tariffs on Chinese goods, Bitcoin has slipped more than 14%. The drop reflects broader investor anxiety about slowing trade and increased geopolitical risk.
However, the narrative has started to shift. Trump’s suggestion that certain trading partners may receive exemptions or reduced tariffs has triggered a slight recovery in sentiment. Investors are now watching April 2 — a key deadline for any trade deals or revised tariff terms — as a potential turning point.
Derivatives Market Suggests Cautious Optimism
Despite growing bullish chatter, the options market reveals a more nuanced outlook. Singapore-based QCP Group noted that while open interest is clustered around the $100K and $110K strike levels, this is not necessarily translating into high volatility expectations ahead of the quarterly expiry.
Instead, market participants appear to be waiting on fundamental catalysts like the PCE report to determine direction. This means that while Bitcoin could rally sharply, the move is likely to be driven by macro developments rather than speculative positioning alone.
Will Bitcoin Hit $110,000 — Or Is a Pullback Coming First?
Some analysts have set ambitious targets for Bitcoin, predicting it could surge past $110,000 before pulling back to around $76,500. These forecasts are based on patterns of parabolic runs followed by healthy corrections, which Bitcoin has exhibited in past cycles.
Still, the sustainability of such a rally will depend heavily on a combination of favorable economic indicators, ongoing institutional support, and improvements in global trade relations.
A Crucial Crossroads for Bitcoin and the Macro Landscape
As Bitcoin sits on the edge of a potential breakout, investors face a landscape shaped by much more than digital asset fundamentals. Inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical developments are all playing key roles in shaping sentiment and price action.
The next few weeks — particularly around the March 28 PCE report and April 2 tariff decisions — could prove pivotal. Whether Bitcoin climbs past $110,000 or faces another period of volatility will depend on how these events unfold.
For now, both retail and institutional investors appear cautiously optimistic. But as always with Bitcoin, the only certainty is that markets are watching — and reacting — in real time.