Why Unusual Options Activity Matters Heading Into 2026
As investors turn the page to 2026, optimism is returning to markets after another year of solid gains for the S&P 500. While valuations remain elevated and macro uncertainty lingers, one area continues to offer early clues about where smart money is positioning next: unusual options activity.
When options volume spikes far beyond normal levels — especially when paired with bullish call buying — it often signals growing institutional interest ahead of potential price moves. As the new year begins, three stocks stand out for surging options activity that suggests upside potential in 2026: Nvidia, Nike, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
Based on recent volume trends, positioning, and fundamentals, these names fall into three tiers — hot, medium, and mild — for investors watching momentum build beneath the surface.
Mild Signal: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, commonly known as CIBC, is Canada’s fifth-largest bank with over CAD $1 trillion in total assets. While not traditionally viewed as a high-growth play, Canadian bank stocks have historically proven resilient during economic slowdowns, offering defensive appeal when recession risks rise.
That context matters heading into 2026. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has publicly warned that recession odds could approach one-third next year. During the 2008–2009 financial crisis, Canada’s major banks significantly outperformed their U.S. counterparts — a reminder that strong regulation and conservative balance sheets can matter when volatility spikes.
From a valuation standpoint, CM is no longer cheap. Its trailing P/E sits near 15, above its five-year average. Still, the stock has delivered a strong 2025 performance, ranking second among Canada’s Big Five banks.
What makes CM interesting now is options activity. In late December, CM’s options volume exploded nearly 18x above its 30-day average, with unusually heavy call buying clustered around January expirations. Notably, this activity does not appear tied to earnings, suggesting speculative positioning rather than short-term hedging.
While analysts remain lukewarm, the options market hints that investors are quietly positioning for continued momentum into early 2026.
Medium Signal: Nike (NKE)
Nike has endured a painful multi-year reset. Shares are down sharply from their highs as shifting consumer tastes, China weakness, and leadership missteps weighed heavily on performance. However, turnarounds often begin before they show up clearly in the stock price — and Nike may be entering that phase.
Under returning CEO Elliott Hill, Nike has refocused on its core strengths: sports performance, wholesale distribution, and brand visibility. Independent consumer surveys now show improving brand perception and better product availability, reversing declines seen between 2019 and 2022.
Financially, recent results surprised to the upside. Nike delivered stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue, with North America showing renewed growth even as China remained a drag. Margin stabilization and operational discipline suggest the worst may be over.
Options traders appear to agree — cautiously. Nike’s options volume recently ran about 60% above its monthly average, with a bullish put/call ratio near 0.70. Several contracts showed elevated volume relative to open interest, pointing to measured but growing optimism rather than speculative frenzy.
Nike remains a work in progress, but improving fundamentals combined with supportive options signals make it a medium-conviction rebound candidate for 2026.
Hot Signal: Nvidia (NVDA)
It’s no surprise that Nvidia tops this list. The company remains the undisputed backbone of the AI revolution, powering everything from data centers to advanced inference workloads. While Nvidia’s story is well known, options activity suggests traders still see meaningful upside ahead.
In late December, Nvidia posted options volume exceeding 3 million contracts, roughly 45% above its recent average. The put/call ratio hovered near 0.46, a level that reflects strong bullish bias. Dozens of contracts showed elevated volume-to-open-interest ratios, indicating fresh positioning rather than routine rollovers.
Fundamentally, Nvidia continues to generate massive free cash flow, benefit from multi-year AI infrastructure spending, and expand into networking, software, and next-generation architectures. Even after its historic rally, long-dated call buyers remain active — a sign that investors are betting Nvidia’s dominance extends well into 2026 and beyond.
While volatility remains a risk, Nvidia’s unusual options activity places it firmly in the “hot” category for next-year upside potential.
What These Options Signals Mean for 2026 Investors
Unusual options activity doesn’t guarantee gains, but it often reveals where institutional capital is quietly positioning ahead of broader market moves. As 2026 begins, Nvidia, Nike, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce each tell a different story — from AI leadership to consumer recovery to defensive banking resilience.
Together, these signals suggest that opportunity in 2026 won’t be confined to a single sector. Investors who combine options-market insights with solid fundamentals may find themselves better positioned to capture upside as the next chapter of the bull market unfolds.