Tesla’s stock price tells a story of ambition, disruption, and future-facing technology. Investors are increasingly treating the company not as a traditional automaker, but as a leader in artificial intelligence, robotics, and energy infrastructure. Recent excitement around robotaxi testing has only reinforced that narrative. However, beneath the optimism lies a more uncomfortable question—what is Tesla’s core car business actually worth on its own?
According to one prominent Wall Street analyst, not nearly as much as the stock price suggests. A deeper look at Tesla car business valuation reveals a growing disconnect between what investors are paying today and what the electric vehicle business alone may justify.
Why Tesla Is No Longer Valued Like a Car Company
Tesla’s market behavior has shifted dramatically in recent years. While vehicle deliveries and pricing once dominated earnings discussions, investors now focus more on autonomy, artificial intelligence, and energy storage.
Jed Dorsheimer, group head of energy research at William Blair, argues that this shift is already complete. In his view, Tesla is no longer judged primarily on how many cars it sells. Instead, the stock trades on expectations for technologies that are still emerging rather than revenues that already exist.
This change in perception is central to understanding today’s Tesla car business valuation.
The $30–$40 Per Share Estimate Explained
Dorsheimer’s analysis breaks Tesla into parts rather than viewing it as a single entity. Using a sum-of-the-parts framework, he estimates that Tesla’s automotive manufacturing and sales business represents only about $30 to $40 per share.
That figure is striking when compared to Tesla’s overall trading price, which recently surged to record highs. The implication is clear: most of Tesla’s market value is being assigned to businesses that are either in early stages or not yet fully commercialized.
From this perspective, the traditional EV business has become a smaller piece of a much larger speculative puzzle.
Stock Performance Reflects Future Expectations
Tesla shares have rallied sharply, rising more than 7% in just a few trading days and reaching new all-time highs. This performance stands in contrast to broader market indexes, which have softened amid concerns about slowing economic momentum and rising unemployment.
The divergence highlights how Tesla is being evaluated differently from other large-cap stocks. While macroeconomic data weighs on the broader market, Tesla’s stock continues to climb on optimism surrounding autonomy and AI.
As a result, Tesla car business valuation has become almost secondary in the eyes of many investors.
Robotaxis and AI Are Driving the Narrative
Recent reports of driverless robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas have reignited enthusiasm around Tesla’s autonomy ambitions. These developments have reinforced the idea that Tesla is transitioning from an EV manufacturer into an autonomous mobility platform.
Dorsheimer believes that autonomy now accounts for more than 70% of Tesla’s total valuation. This includes not only the robotaxi platform but also Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot initiative.
In this framework, the car business becomes a funding mechanism rather than the primary value driver.
Energy Is Becoming as Important as Automobiles
Beyond autonomy, Tesla’s energy business is also gaining recognition. Energy storage, grid-scale batteries, and infrastructure solutions are increasingly viewed as long-term growth engines.
According to Dorsheimer, Tesla’s energy segment may now be worth as much as—or even more than—the automotive business itself. This further reduces the relative importance of vehicle sales in Tesla’s overall valuation.
When energy and autonomy are combined, the traditional EV business appears surprisingly small within the broader Tesla car business valuation equation.
Why This Valuation Creates Risk
The biggest concern for skeptics is execution. While Tesla’s stock price reflects confidence in future technologies, the company’s near-term revenue still depends largely on selling vehicles in an increasingly competitive EV market.
Global EV demand is facing pressure from pricing competition, regulatory uncertainty, and slower consumer adoption in some regions. If autonomy or robotics timelines slip—as they have in the past—the market may be forced to reassess how much value should be assigned to those future bets.
In that scenario, investors could find themselves paying a premium price for a business that generates far less value today.
Regulatory Challenges Add Another Layer of Uncertainty
Regulatory scrutiny remains a significant hurdle. California regulators recently raised concerns about Tesla’s use of “Autopilot” branding, giving the company a limited window to clarify or revise its marketing language.
This serves as a reminder that the path to full autonomy is not only technical but legal. Any delays caused by regulatory action could have an outsized impact on investor sentiment, especially given how much of Tesla’s valuation depends on future capabilities.
For those evaluating Tesla car business valuation, regulatory risk cannot be ignored.
The Margin for Error Is Shrinking
At current price levels, Tesla offers little room for disappointment. Investors buying at elevated valuations are effectively betting that autonomy, robotics, and energy will deliver at scale—and on schedule.
If those expectations are met, Tesla’s valuation could be justified or even conservative. If not, the market may be forced to refocus on fundamentals, including vehicle margins, delivery growth, and profitability.
In that case, the $30-per-share estimate for the car business would receive far more attention.
Why Some Analysts Remain Optimistic
Despite the risks, Dorsheimer remains constructive on Tesla’s long-term prospects, particularly in energy. He views the energy segment as underappreciated and capable of becoming a meaningful contributor to earnings over time.
For long-term investors, Tesla represents a complex mix of present-day execution and future potential. Understanding how much of the stock price is tied to each component is essential.
Conclusion
Tesla’s soaring stock price reflects belief in a future defined by autonomy, AI, and energy—not just electric vehicles. However, a closer look at Tesla car business valuation reveals a stark reality: the traditional EV business may account for only a small fraction of the company’s current market value.
This doesn’t mean Tesla’s vision is flawed, but it does mean expectations are exceptionally high. As long as progress continues, investors may remain comfortable paying for tomorrow’s promise. But if execution falters, the market may be forced to reevaluate how much today’s car business is truly worth.
In the end, Tesla’s valuation is less about what it is—and more about what investors believe it will become.