After weeks of heightened volatility, Bitcoin appears to have found its footing. Following a sharp pullback in late November, the world’s largest cryptocurrency rebounded strongly from the $80,000 zone and has since climbed back above $90,000. While price action alone tells part of the story, a deeper look at on-chain and market structure data suggests this recovery is not random. Several widely followed cost-basis indicators are converging to show that Bitcoin support near $80,000 is structurally significant, reinforcing the view that long-term investors stepped in aggressively during the dip.
Why Cost Basis Metrics Matter in Bitcoin Markets
Cost basis metrics help identify where different groups of investors are likely to defend their positions. When Bitcoin trades near the average purchase price of major investor cohorts, selling pressure often fades and demand increases. These levels frequently act as natural support zones during bull markets, as holders are less inclined to sell at or below their entry prices.
In the latest drawdown, Bitcoin aligned with three critical cost-basis measures, creating a strong “confluence zone” that helped stabilize price and trigger a rebound.
True Market Mean Signals Active Investor Support
One of the most important indicators is the True Market Mean, which represents the average on-chain purchase price of Bitcoin held by active market participants. Unlike broader averages, this metric filters out long-dormant coins and focuses on supply that has moved recently, making it a reliable proxy for the cost basis of traders most likely to react during volatility.
During the recent pullback, the True Market Mean sat close to $81,000. Bitcoin briefly tested this level before bouncing, confirming it as a key area of demand. Notably, BTC first reclaimed this metric in October 2023 and had not traded meaningfully below it since, underscoring its role as a structural support level within the broader bull market.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Cost Basis Reinforces the Floor
Another major layer of support comes from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. The ETF cost basis reflects the average price at which Bitcoin has been accumulated through these funds, calculated using daily inflows and prevailing market prices.
According to Glassnode data, the average ETF cost basis currently sits around $83,800. Bitcoin’s recent decline once again stalled near this zone, echoing a similar reaction seen during the April selloff tied to tariff-related macro concerns. This suggests institutional and long-term allocators remain unwilling to sell below their aggregate entry levels, reinforcing confidence in the market’s underlying demand.
2024 Yearly Cost Basis Adds a Third Layer of Support
The third metric strengthening the support zone is the 2024 yearly cost basis, which tracks the average price at which Bitcoin acquired this year has moved off exchanges. Historical analysis shows that yearly cohort cost bases often act as dynamic support during bullish cycles.
In this case, the 2024 cost basis hovered near $83,000, according to on-chain data providers. Bitcoin’s reaction around this level mirrored behavior seen during previous corrections, where buyers consistently defended the average entry price of the current-year cohort. This alignment added further confirmation that demand was concentrated just above $80,000.
Confluence Zones Often Define Bull Market Pullbacks
When multiple cost-basis indicators cluster in a narrow price range, the resulting confluence tends to form powerful support. In Bitcoin’s case, the overlap between the True Market Mean, ETF cost basis, and yearly cost basis created a high-confidence demand zone between roughly $80,000 and $84,000.
Such zones are common in sustained bull markets, where corrections reset leverage and sentiment without breaking longer-term trends. The swift rebound following Bitcoin’s test of this area suggests the broader market still views dips into this range as buying opportunities rather than signs of structural weakness.
What This Means for Bitcoin’s Broader Trend
Bitcoin’s recovery from the $80,000 region does not guarantee uninterrupted upside, but it does provide important insight into market positioning. The fact that multiple investor cohorts share similar cost bases in this zone increases the likelihood that future pullbacks will encounter strong buying interest before breaking lower.
Additionally, the resilience shown during this correction points to a maturing market structure, where institutional flows and on-chain behavior are increasingly aligned. As long as Bitcoin remains above these key cost-basis levels, the broader bullish framework remains intact.
The recent rebound highlights why Bitcoin support near $80,000 is more than just a psychological level. The convergence of the True Market Mean, U.S. spot ETF cost basis, and the 2024 yearly cost basis created a robust demand zone that successfully absorbed selling pressure and fueled a recovery above $90,000. While volatility is likely to persist, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s latest pullback was a reset rather than a trend reversal, reinforcing confidence in the market’s longer-term trajectory.