Apple has been counted out many times before, and yet the company always seems to return with a wave of momentum that reshapes investor expectations. After a choppy start to 2025, many analysts had written off the tech giant as lagging behind faster-growing competitors in AI and cloud infrastructure. But as the second half of the year unfolded, Apple did what Apple often does: it quietly rebuilt strength under the surface and then surged ahead in dramatic fashion.
Over the last six months, AAPL has rallied nearly 38%, hitting a fresh all-time high of $288.62 on December 3. That astonishing comeback didn’t just beat the broader S&P 500’s 14% rise—it also outperformed tech leaders like Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon. For a company already valued in the trillions, outperforming top-tier mega-caps underscores just how deeply Apple remains intertwined with consumer behavior, global supply chains, and premium hardware demand.
But behind the headlines, Apple’s rally is about far more than stock charts. It reflects renewed confidence in the company’s product pipeline, strategic wins on tariffs, and the unstoppable force of its Services ecosystem—an engine that continues growing even as hardware cycles ebb and flow. With 2026 now on the horizon, long-term investors are asking the natural question: Is Apple still a buy, or has the stock already priced in everything good that’s coming?
Let’s break down the newest growth catalysts, the strengthening fundamentals, and the valuation debate dominating analysts’ discussions.
Apple Poised for an Acceleration in Growth Heading Into 2026
Despite slow momentum early in 2025, Apple is now entering a new growth phase fueled by robust hardware demand, expanding Services revenue, and one of the most comprehensive product refresh cycles in years.
Record September Quarter Sets the Stage
Apple reported September-quarter revenue of $102.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase and the strongest signal yet that the upgrade cycle is gaining strength again. Even more importantly, management guided for 10%–12% revenue growth in the holiday quarter—suggesting the rebound is not a temporary spike but a sustainable shift.
iPhone 17 Demand Is Surpassing Expectations
Few products influence Apple stock the way the iPhone does—and the early reception of the iPhone 17 lineup has been overwhelmingly positive. With better cameras, more AI-driven features, and stronger battery life, demand is running ahead of internal forecasts.
In the September quarter:
- iPhone revenue hit $49 billion, up 6% YoY
- Apple reached a record-high iPhone installed base
- Management is targeting double-digit iPhone revenue growth for the holiday season
- Analysts expect the upgrade cycle to extend well into 2026
The iPhone remains Apple’s profit engine, and in the current cycle, that engine is firing on all cylinders.
Tariff Relief Provides an Unexpected Boost
One of Apple’s biggest tailwinds this year came from Washington—not Silicon Valley. The company received temporary tariff relief on certain iPhones produced outside the U.S., protecting Apple from raising prices at a sensitive moment for consumers. That decision helped support demand during the crucial holiday upgrade window and prevented a margin squeeze that many investors had feared.
Mac, iPad, and Wearables Refresh Build a Stronger Ecosystem
Apple’s device ecosystem is entering 2026 with renewed strength:
- Mac revenue jumped 13% to $8.7 billion
- MacBook Air remains a top-selling laptop globally
- New M5-powered MacBook Pros and iPad Pros are expected to boost high-performance computing demand
- The next-generation AirPods Pro and a redesigned Apple Watch lineup expand Apple’s wearable influence
Although Mac growth may cool slightly in the December quarter due to difficult YoY comparisons, Apple’s broader product cycle appears stronger than it has been in years.
Services: The Most Important Long-Term Growth Engine
If hardware drives excitement, Services drive stability—and Apple’s Services revenue is becoming a financial powerhouse.
In Q4:
- Services revenue hit a record $28.8 billion, up 15% YoY
- Growth came from:
- App Store
- Apple Music
- Apple TV+
- iCloud
- Advertising
- Payments and digital commerce
- Subscription bundles
With over 2 billion active devices worldwide, Apple has built the most lucrative digital ecosystem in the world—and it continues to monetize it with increasing efficiency.
The more people who join Apple’s ecosystem, the more predictable its revenue becomes. This is Apple’s real strategic advantage heading into 2026.
Is AAPL a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2026?
Apple has momentum. Apple has pricing power. Apple has a loyal global customer base. But even great companies can become risky when valuations stretch too far, and that’s the one issue investors are debating today.
The Valuation Problem
AAPL now trades around 34× forward earnings, which is high relative to its:
- Forecasted 8.9% EPS growth in fiscal 2026
- Forecasted 11.8% EPS growth in 2027
Those are solid numbers—but not quite enough to justify the premium multiple in the minds of more cautious analysts.
Consensus Rating: “Moderate Buy”
Despite the valuation concerns:
- Analysts overall rate AAPL as a Moderate Buy
- Most remain bullish on Apple’s fundamentals
- Some suggest waiting for a pullback to improve the risk-reward setup
This makes sense: Apple is a long-term compounder, but entering at historically high valuations reduces upside.
The Bull Case (Buy)
Investors willing to buy today argue:
- iPhone 17 upgrade cycle will run long into 2026
- Services margins will continue expanding
- Apple’s growing enterprise adoption adds a new pillar of demand
- Tariff relief helps protect margins
- New product categories—such as Vision Pro follow-ons and AI-integrated devices—could unlock new revenue streams
The Bear Case (Sell)
Investors who lean bearish cite:
- Slowing global smartphone markets
- Macro uncertainty (rates, tariffs, China softness)
- High valuation relative to earnings growth
- Limited near-term catalysts beyond product refreshes
The Middle Ground (Hold)
Many long-term investors fall into this camp.
Apple is neither “cheap” nor “at risk.” It’s simply priced for excellence—and the stock may need a breather.
Final Thoughts: Apple Remains a Market Titan—But Timing Matters
Apple’s late-2025 comeback wasn’t a fluke; it was a reflection of renewed demand, strategic wins, and the unmatched strength of its ecosystem. Heading into 2026, Apple appears well-positioned to deliver steady, high-quality growth supported by:
✔ A powerful iPhone upgrade cycle
✔ Strengthening Services revenue
✔ A refreshed hardware lineup
✔ Tariff relief
✔ Expanding global installed base
However, the stock’s valuation is elevated enough that short-term upside may be somewhat capped unless Apple beats expectations again—which it has a history of doing, but is never guaranteed.
Bottom line:
- Long-term investors: Apple remains a strong Hold and a solid Buy on any pullback.
- Short-term traders: The valuation makes chasing at current levels riskier.
- Fundamental investors: Apple is still one of the best-run companies on earth, but patience on entry price may pay off.
If Apple continues executing on its Services expansion and ecosystem monetization, 2026 could be another strong year—just don’t expect the stock to rise in a straight line.