The Quantum Gold Rush Begins
Every generation of investors finds its own version of the gold rush. For some, it was dot-com. For others, it was crypto or artificial intelligence. Now, as we move into 2026, the new frontier is quantum computing — a technology that promises to make today’s supercomputers look like toys.
In the last 12 months, Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) — two companies still in the early stages of commercialization — have seen their shares skyrocket by more than 1,900%, transforming from obscure penny stocks into multibillion-dollar names.
Neither company is profitable. Neither has significant revenue. And yet, their valuations now rival established corporations like Campbell Soup Co. and Goodyear Tire — despite generating less than 1% of their earnings.
Welcome to the unpredictable world of quantum investing, where cutting-edge physics meets speculative finance, and where the line between breakthrough and bubble grows thinner by the day.
The Hype Cycle of a New Technology
Quantum computing isn’t just another iteration of traditional computing — it’s a fundamental reimagining of how information is processed.
Instead of using bits that represent 0s and 1s, quantum computers use qubits, which can exist as both 0 and 1 simultaneously thanks to quantum superposition. The result is a machine that, theoretically, can perform calculations exponentially faster than any existing computer.
“If it works, it’s going to be huge and explosive,” said Troy Jensen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. “If not, it could go to zero.”
That binary outcome — either world-changing success or complete collapse — has made the sector both electrifying and perilous for investors.
The analogy many draw is to biotech investing. Just as biotech investors wait years for a breakthrough drug to pass trials, quantum investors are betting on physics itself — waiting for one big leap that turns scientific promise into practical profit.
However, as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang cautioned earlier this year, the world may still be decades away from seeing quantum computing achieve its full commercial potential.
That hasn’t stopped capital from flooding in.
Rigetti and D-Wave: From Niche Experiments to Market Darlings
Two of the sector’s biggest names, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, have become the poster children for this speculative surge.
Both companies develop hardware and software platforms designed to harness quantum mechanics for problem-solving. But for now, their real-world use cases remain limited to research and development contracts with universities and government agencies.
Despite this, their combined market capitalization has exceeded $20 billion, largely fueled by retail traders and speculative momentum funds chasing “the next AI.”
In late 2024, Rigetti’s stock soared 1,900%, becoming one of the best-performing equities on Wall Street — outpacing even high-flying AI names like Palantir (PLTR).
Meanwhile, D-Wave, known for its quantum annealing systems, has also surged amid retail excitement and social media hype, with analysts comparing it to Tesla’s early years when skepticism clashed with vision-driven speculation.
The enthusiasm isn’t limited to small-cap investors. Institutional capital is also circling the space. In October, Fidelity International joined a funding round for Quantinuum, valuing the private quantum startup at $10 billion, signaling growing confidence that quantum computing may eventually underpin national and corporate competitiveness.
Quantum’s Promise: Computing Beyond Imagination
The promise of quantum computing lies in its potential to solve problems that are currently impossible for classical computers.
In theory, quantum processors could:
- Simulate complex molecules to accelerate drug discovery.
- Optimize global logistics or energy grids in real-time.
- Enhance climate modeling with unprecedented accuracy.
- Break traditional encryption systems, reshaping cybersecurity.
For investors, these possibilities conjure parallels to the early days of artificial intelligence — when ChatGPT and AI chips were speculative curiosities before turning into trillion-dollar catalysts.
“Quantum is going to leapfrog everything,” said Haim Israel, head of global thematic research at Bank of America. “Capital markets don’t want to miss this moment.”
The fear of missing out — or FOMO — is a defining feature of every technological revolution. Quantum’s backers believe that getting in early, even amid uncertainty, could yield generational returns once the technology matures.
Bubble or Breakthrough? Signs of Speculation Emerge
Not everyone is convinced this rally will end in triumph.
The fundamentals tell a different story. Rigetti, for example, is expected to generate only $20 million in revenue over the next four quarters — most of it from small government and academic contracts. Yet at current levels, it trades at more than 500 times forward sales, making even Palantir (at 72x) and the Nasdaq 100 (at 6x) look cheap by comparison.
“There are no earnings, nothing to go on,” said Bruce Cox, manager of the Harrington Alpha Fund, who is shorting Rigetti. “The froth is crazy.”
If Rigetti were to justify its current valuation on par with Nvidia’s metrics, it would need to generate $600 million in annual revenue — more than 30 times its projected 2027 sales.
Both Rigetti and D-Wave have already fallen more than 34% from their recent highs, wiping out roughly $12 billion in market value in a matter of weeks. Yet analysts remain largely optimistic, with six of seven covering Rigetti issuing “Buy” ratings.
Benchmark’s David Williams, one of the most bullish voices on the sector, admitted the volatility has drawn unusual attention — even hostility.
“When I raised my price target on Rigetti to $50 from $20, I got more hate mail than in my entire career,” he said.
Still, Williams insists the recent pullback doesn’t undermine the long-term story.
“There’s no question quantum stocks have been fueled by momentum, but progress is real,” he said. “Volatility comes with innovation.”
The New Speculation Culture: From Meme Stocks to Quantum Dreams
The rally in quantum computing stocks also reflects a broader shift in investor psychology.
In the post-pandemic era, markets have embraced high-risk, narrative-driven assets — from meme stocks to AI chipmakers. Social media, Reddit forums, and influencer-driven trading communities have blurred the line between speculation and strategy.
Quantum computing fits perfectly into this narrative. It’s futuristic, complex, and nearly impossible to value — the ideal recipe for hype.
Even established tech companies like Alphabet (GOOG) have benefited from quantum euphoria. In October, a single report suggesting a breakthrough with its Willow quantum chip briefly added $30 billion in market value to Google’s parent company in just minutes.
This kind of reaction highlights the narrative premium — when a compelling story can move markets faster than any earnings report.
Investor Reality Check: Betting on a Long Horizon
The most sobering truth about quantum investing is that the technology may not deliver returns for a decade or more.
Despite major government funding — including from the U.S. Department of Energy and the European Union — quantum remains an experimental science still grappling with error correction, stability, and scalability.
For every bullish prediction about “quantum supremacy,” there’s a counterpoint about the limits of current hardware.
In that sense, today’s valuations may not reflect near-term fundamentals but rather option value — investors buying early exposure to a technology that could redefine computation in the 2030s.
“Quantum’s not going to escape a broader market selloff,” warned analyst David Williams, “but the long-term thesis is still intact.”
Between Science and Speculation
Quantum investing sits at the crossroads of science fiction and financial speculation. It’s a market where trillion-dollar dreams coexist with the risk of total loss, and where headlines about “the next computing revolution” collide with balance sheets showing zero profit.
The 1,900% stock surges of Rigetti and D-Wave reflect both the promise of transformative innovation and the dangers of unchecked market exuberance.
For investors, the takeaway is clear: quantum computing may well be the next great technological wave — but it’s still an unproven ocean.
Those who enter this market should do so with the patience of a scientist, the skepticism of a veteran trader, and the foresight of someone who understands that revolutions, no matter how inevitable, take time.
In quantum investing, the potential payoff is infinite — but so is the uncertainty.