Nvidia Faces Mounting Pressure While the S&P 500 Pushes Toward New Highs

September is notorious for volatility on Wall Street, and 2025 has proven no different. The S&P 500 (SPX) faced early-month turbulence but managed to stabilize in the 6,340–6,360 range, creating a strong technical foundation for another push to record highs. Key support also lies at 6,200 and 6,150, ensuring bulls remain confident in the index’s resilience.

Yet while the broader market is finding its footing, Nvidia (NVDA) — once the poster child of the AI rally — is flashing worrying technical and sentiment signals. Investors may need to recalibrate expectations as the semiconductor giant faces valuation pressure, competition, and cooling enthusiasm. At the same time, gold has surged to new records, reaffirming its safe-haven status.

The S&P 500: Still Bullish Despite Mixed Signals

The SPX remains structurally bullish, but investors must tread carefully:

The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still active. A close above 6,600 would negate this risk.
Market breadth continues to struggle, with oscillators stuck on sell signals. This lack of broad participation is a red flag.
However, NYSE new highs are outpacing new lows, a bullish confirmation of strength across sectors.

Overall, the index is in an upward trend, but selective caution remains prudent.

Nvidia: Investor Darling Losing Momentum

For much of the past two years, Nvidia symbolized the AI boom, driving both institutional and retail enthusiasm. Now, cracks are appearing:

A put-call ratio sell signal has emerged, indicating bearish sentiment.
Expensive options have pushed traders toward bear put spreads, such as buying the NVDA (Nov. 21) 170 put and selling the 145 put.
The broader narrative is shifting — Nvidia’s dominance is being challenged by AMD, Broadcom, and custom ASIC accelerators.

Nvidia remains a core AI player, but the market may be adjusting from “hype premium” to fundamental reality.

Gold: A Haven That Keeps Delivering

While Nvidia struggles, gold has extended its rally. Despite being up significantly this year, fresh put-call ratio buy signals confirm more upside potential.

To capture the move efficiently, traders are using bull call spreads on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), buying the Nov. 21 326 call and selling the 343 call.

Gold’s rally is supported by:

Rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve.
Weakening global growth outlooks.
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Together, these factors make gold a powerful hedge in today’s climate.

Comparative Performance: Nvidia vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 (Q3 2025)

Here’s a clear snapshot of how Nvidia, gold, and the S&P 500 have fared this quarter:

Asset	Q3 2025 Performance	Year-to-Date (YTD)	Key Drivers
Nvidia (NVDA)	-12%	+45%	Weakening AI hype, bearish options signals
Gold (GC/GLD)	+15%	+32%	Safe-haven demand, Fed rate-cut expectations
S&P 500 (SPX)	+6%	+18%	Strong tech leadership, bullish sentiment

This table highlights the divergence of momentum: Nvidia cooling off, gold accelerating, and the broader market holding firm.

Volatility and Market Sentiment Signals

Additional technical indicators shaping the current market:

VIX signals remain bullish unless the index closes above its 200-day average of 19.10 for two straight sessions.
Realized volatility (HV20) on SPX cooled from 12% back down to 10%. A further drop to 8% would cancel the bearish undertone.
Equity-only put-call ratios are turning positive, reinforcing stock market stability.

The signals suggest a market climbing a wall of worry, where selective risk-taking is rewarded.

Final Takeaway: Navigating Diverging Paths

The S&P 500 is resilient and technically bullish, supported by positive volatility structures and strong leadership from large-cap tech. Gold continues to shine as investors hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, while Nvidia appears vulnerable to a pullback amid shifting sentiment and elevated valuations.

For investors, the key strategy is balance: