Why Biotech Can Deliver Outsized Gains
The biotechnology sector is one of the most volatile yet rewarding areas of the stock market. Unlike traditional industries, where growth is often steady and predictable, biotech companies can see their shares skyrocket in response to successful clinical trials, FDA approvals, or breakthrough therapies. For long-term investors, this volatility translates into massive opportunity — especially when betting on companies with multiple catalysts in play.
Looking ahead to 2030, two smaller biotech firms — Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) and Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ: AXSM) — stand out as potential multi-baggers. If either can achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 14.9% over the next five years, their stocks could easily double in value. Here’s a closer look at why both companies have what it takes to make that happen.
1. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX): Riding the GLP-1 Wave
Viking Therapeutics recently came under pressure after releasing phase 2 trial results for its oral GLP-1 weight loss candidate, VK2735. On the surface, some investors saw the dropout rate due to gastrointestinal side effects as a red flag. However, the data tells a different story.
- At the highest tested dose, VK2735 achieved 12.2% weight loss in just 13 weeks.
- By comparison, Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron reported a nearly identical 12.4% weight loss — but only after 72 weeks.
This suggests Viking’s candidate could be more potent over shorter treatment periods. Importantly, lower doses of VK2735 showed fewer side effects while still producing meaningful weight loss, giving the company multiple paths forward in clinical development.
Why Oral GLP-1s Matter
Currently, most GLP-1 weight loss therapies are injectables, which face challenges around cost, distribution, and patient compliance. An effective oral version would represent a massive leap forward, both commercially and logistically. Pills are easier to manufacture, ship, and take consistently — making them highly attractive to insurers and patients alike.
Other Catalysts in Viking’s Pipeline
Beyond the oral formulation, Viking is advancing the injectable version of VK2735 through a phase 3 study. Early-stage data has been extremely promising, suggesting blockbuster potential if results hold up in late-stage trials.
Another promising asset is VK2809, a therapy targeting metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), a condition with limited treatment options but a huge patient population. Late-stage trials here could provide yet another growth driver.
Bottom Line on Viking
While Viking remains a clinical-stage biotech (meaning no commercialized products yet), it has already demonstrated its ability to generate strong trial data. If VK2735 — oral or injectable — proves successful, Viking could capture a massive share of the GLP-1 market, projected to exceed $100 billion globally by the 2030s.
2. Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM): Building a Commercial Growth Engine
Unlike Viking, Axsome Therapeutics has already transitioned from clinical-stage to commercial-stage biotech, with two FDA-approved drugs generating revenue:
- Auvelity for major depressive disorder (MDD)
- Symbravo for migraines
Both drugs have years of exclusivity protection ahead, ensuring durable revenue streams while Axsome continues expanding their uses into new indications.
Revenue Momentum
In Q2, Axsome reported $150 million in revenue, up 72% year-over-year. This rapid growth highlights strong adoption of its therapies and sets the stage for sustained momentum as it adds new indications.
Key Upcoming Catalysts
- Auvelity (AXS-05): Axsome is pursuing approval for agitation associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). With over 7 million AD patients in the U.S., and nearly 70% experiencing agitation, the commercial potential is enormous. The company expects to submit regulatory applications in Q3 2025.
- AXS-12: Targeting cataplexy (a narcolepsy symptom) with plans to file for approval by year-end.
- AXS-14: In development for fibromyalgia, another large market with limited effective treatments.
Collectively, these pipeline expansions could significantly broaden Axsome’s addressable market, making it more than just a two-drug story.
Strategic Positioning
Unlike many small-cap biotechs, Axsome is not solely dependent on one pipeline product. With diverse late-stage candidates and already approved drugs driving near-term revenue, the company is better positioned to weather risks such as trial failures or regulatory delays.
Copiable Table: Biotech Growth Potential
| Company | Ticker | Key Pipeline Assets | Stage | Growth Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking Therapeutics | VKTX | VK2735 (oral & injectable GLP-1), VK2809 (MASH) | Phase 2 & 3 trials | Weight-loss & metabolic therapies |
| Axsome Therapeutics | AXSM | Auvelity (MDD & AD agitation), Symbravo (migraines), AXS-12, AXS-14 | Commercial & late-stage | Label expansions & new approvals |
Final Take: Can These Biotech Stocks Double by 2030?
Biotech investing always comes with inherent risks — from clinical trial setbacks to regulatory hurdles. Yet, for companies with strong science, promising data, and multiple catalysts, the upside can be life-changing for early investors.
- Viking Therapeutics is a high-risk, high-reward play on the booming GLP-1 market, with the potential to disrupt both weight-loss and liver disease treatment.
- Axsome Therapeutics offers a more balanced opportunity, with growing revenues from approved drugs and a robust late-stage pipeline to fuel expansion.
If both execute successfully, investors could see 100%+ returns over the next five years, making these two biotechs compelling additions for long-term growth portfolios.
Reference : Prosper Junior Bakiny